In 2020, the Applied Statistics and Risk Unit from the University of Warwick worked with digital archivists from The National Archives and other UK archival organisations to develop an integrated decision support system based on a Bayesian network to measure digital preservation risk.
Due to there being limited historical or research data available, additional data needed to populate the model was elicited from experts using a structured expert judgement protocol. There was a two-day facilitated online workshop on 28-29 April 2020 attended by 22 experts, who contributed their knowledge and expertise and provided estimates and uncertainty bounds for the unknown quantities. The results were then mathematically aggregated to produce probabilities which fed into the final model.
This report explains the context, process, methods and results from the expert elicitation exercise that was carried out as part of the research project.
Funded by: this workshop was funded by the National Lottery Heritage Fund (OM-19-01060) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (ESPSRC) Impact Acceleration Fund.
The appendices are described within the report.
appendix-b-dprm-elicitation-workshop.pptx (PPT, 3.4MB)
appendix-b-elicitation-questions-for-discussion.pptx (PPT, 7.3MB)
appendix-b-presented-plots-of-expert-opinion.pdf (PDF, 0.2MB)
appendix-c-chat-day-1-am.txt (TXT, 0.9MB)
appendix-c-chat-day-1-pm.txt (TXT, 0.3MB)
appendix-c-chat-day-2-am.txt (TXT, 0.2MB)
appendix-c-chat-day-2-pm.txt (TXT, 0.2MB)
appendix-c-transcript-day-1-am.pdf (PDF, 0.5MB)
appendix-c-transcript-day-1-pm.pdf (PDF, 0.3MB)
appendix-c-transcript-day-2-am.pdf (PDF, 0.7MB)
appendix-c-transcript-day-2-pm.pdf (PDF, 0.3MB)
appendix-d-expert-performance-updated.pdf (PDF, 0.3MB)
appendix-e-working-doc-calibration-questions.xlsx (XLS, 0.1MB)